The new Home Secretary, James Cleverly MP, has been busy since he was appointed to replace Suella Braverman just over five weeks ago. Amongst the Rwanda and Bibby Stockholm problems on his desk, he was also handed record net migration and an avalanche of pressure within his own party and beyond to tackle the numbers of people coming legally to the UK. In response, he announced a series of almost draconian measures designed to (try to) reduce the number of people who can come to, or remain in, the UK.
Record Net Migration
After three years of fairly liberal immigration policy, the ONS announced the provisional net migration figure for the year to December 2022 was 745,000 people. This is the highest figure on record.
It is worth taking a moment to consider this in context. Firstly, there are many factors which influence the movement of people – much of which is outside of the Government’s control – including humanitarian crises, economic reasons and even climate change, not to mention the effects of Brexit and the pandemic to which many are still adjusting. Indeed, the ONS states in its latest report that the net migration figure is already reducing, with the figure to June 2023 being estimated at 672,000 (a 73,000 decrease).
Secondly, the Government’s “new” immigration system was introduced in December 2020 as a response to Brexit and an acknowledgment that businesses would need easier access to the global labour market once EEA nationals were unable to work in the UK with Free Movement rights. Indeed, Sponsor Licences were promoted by the Home Office and rules changed to allow speculative applications by UK employers on a ‘just in case’ basis, and the skill level which could be sponsored was lowered to RQF3 (i.e. A Level educated jobs). The number of people coming to the UK was bound to go up, no?
Reducing Net Migration
The Government now seeks to try and reduce the number of people who can come to the UK legally, citing strain on public resources and abuse of the system. Mr Cleverly’s announcement in the House of Commons failed to acknowledge Brexit at all, nor the decades of under-investment in public services causing some of that strain. Nevertheless, the strict (some have described as “cruel”) measures announced are:
Increasing the normal minimum salary threshold for most Skilled Workers to £38,700 per year (from £26,200 currently – an approx. 47% increase). UK employers could find a proportion of their normal vacancies at the lower end of salaries can no longer be filled by an overseas worker requiring sponsorship. Sectors with traditionally lower salaries such as hospitality, manufacturing, retail (i.e. those which the Government sought to help back in December 2020) will be worst hit.
New entrant and some other tradeable salary options may still exist, and the Health & Care route and jobs which have salaries set by National pay Scales will be unaffected. However, most businesses will need to adjust recruitment strategies to ensure consistent vacancy filling, review salary levels, and/or accelerate skills training programmes. Sponsors may also wish to consider bringing forward issuing sponsorship to within the first few months of 2024 for roles below this salary level.
Abolishing the Shortage Occupation List and associated 20% salary threshold reduction, together with a review of the jobs on the new Immigration Salary Discount List (ISDL), accepting the Migration Advisory Committee’s (MAC) recent recommendations. The effect of this will depend on what jobs the MAC decides should remain in the ISDL, although as per its recent report this is expected to be care workers and senior care workers, as well as laboratory and pharmaceutical technicians, construction workers (bricklayers, roofers, etc), and some equine jobs. In that eventuality, education jobs, those in the creative sector and IT and software will be most adversely affected.
Preventing Health & Care visa applicants bringing their dependant family members with them when coming to the UK. Since its introduction in August 2020, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and a critical shortage of staff in the health and social care services, the Health & Care visa has been the most commonly issued work visa in the last couple of years, reflecting the continued staff shortages being experienced in the sector post-Brexit. This change is expected to be particularly damaging for women who are more likely to be single parents but who also fill the majority of vacancies. Not being able to bring their children with them for a job overseas will be a barrier to entry and the knock-on effect could be seen with increased vacancies in the sector.
Only allowing social care organisations which are regulated by the Care & Quality Commission (CQC) to sponsor workers in the UK. Restricting those organisations which can take advantage of paying lower salaries in the Health & Care category to those which are CQC regulated may go some way to addressing some of the exploitation concerns recently reported. It also restricts use of the Health & Care visa to those organisations genuinely providing services which are regulated by CQC, which is more in line with the original purpose of the category when first introduced.
Increasing the minimum income requirement for family based applications to £38,700 per annum (an almost 52% increase). It will be higher if there are children included, and the equivalent savings level is also expected to be increased (possibly as high as £95k).
There has been surprise at the inclusion of this in the announcement with some commenting that falling in love is only for the wealthy or London based, and highlighting the risks that families will be unable to stay together in the UK. We have already heard of some couples leaving the UK to live in other countries. Certainly, the proposed new earnings level is far higher than the original level set in 2012 when the financial requirement was first introduced to avoid someone needing public funds to support their family member. A fresh justification is needed from the Government for this figure, particularly given the regional and gender disparities on salary earnings across the UK.
Review the post-study Graduate visa for effectiveness, with a MAC commission. This route was introduced in 2021 to allow Student visa holders to remain in the UK for two years post completion of their course and work unrestricted. It was seen as a way to harness the best talent from the UK’s educational system in a post-Brexit world. It is not unheard of for this sort of category to be closed by Governments on a political whim, with the old Tier 1 (Post-Study Work) visa closed in 2012 for similar net migration targets reasons (remember Theresa May’s 2011 promise?!)
The changes are intended to be introduced in Spring 2024, which is sufficiently vague to be within the next few months but potentially longer. We don’t know yet if transitional arrangements will be in place for people who are already in the UK in these routes and the Government has been woefully quiet to date on many related questions.
Conclusion
Mr Cleverly claims this legacy package of changes will help reduce net migration by 300k. He does not acknowledge any natural fluctuation in net migration, or the pending effects of other policies introduced earlier this year (such as Students no longer being able to bring dependants with them to the UK from January 2024). In response to a question on the detrimental effects for UK businesses and multi-national families, the former MP for Immigration, Robert Jenrick, said on the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme that the measures were a “trade off” to reduce net migration. It all seems a bit trigger-happy and with shallow reasoning.
The law for these amendments has yet to be written and presented to the House, at which point we will know more how these measures will be implemented. It is possible there may be litigation on some changes, and the debate and furore surrounding the announcement is sustainably loud. In the meantime, those who may be adversely affected by these changes should consider making their applications in the next few months.
